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I’m in my car headed to the grocery store to buy food for dinner. That’s what I do. I buy fresh food. I eat very little processed food, so I buy food fairly often to make my meals.

On this particular day, it was a madhouse. The grocery store parking lot shares spaces with the health club in the same complex. It was jammed with cars and people jockeying to get their cars parked. I wanted to get a space so I could grocery shop. Seems everyone else was trying to go to the health club.

A guy gets out of his car next to mine; the same time as I’m getting out.

I look over at him. He’s of average height, probably 30 pounds overweight. He’s got a brand new duffle bag slung over his arm and pristine, new running shoes on his feet. I can tell where he’s going. I also know I can really depress him if he reads this blog post. He’s just bought a new health club membership, has his resolution to lose weight and get in shape. I’m about to lay out the evidence that this new resolution isn’t really going to go all that well. The information I’m about to share comes from the National Institutes of Health. These are supposed to be our nation’s gurus on weight loss and overall health. Their mission is to look out for our best health interests.

They designed a little computer program. It’s called the Body Weight Planner. What you do is enter your vitals, (height, weight etc.). Input the kind of exercise you are willing to do and then put in your lower weight goal and it will tell you how long it will take to get to your goal.

Here’s data on a guy who’s 200 pounds and is willing to run for a full 60 minutes on a treadmill four days a week. Four days a week for an hour each time sounds pretty impressive doesn’t it? Almost like a dedicated athlete of sorts.

Well, here’s the final analysis. The Body Weight Planner says if he does that regularly, he’ll lose 5 pounds in a month. If the guy has 30 pounds to lose that’s six months of full dedication to lose that 30 pounds. What are the odds he’ll make it to his goal? Just think about it.

Even the guy at the NIH who designed the program says that if that man eats more than they recommend, his weight loss will suffer. And statistics show that this level of exercise is going to make him hungrier. The guy from the NIH also says if our workout guy rests too much while recovering from his running routine… that will slow down his weight loss, too. Most folks head to the sofa to watch TV after a workout like that. You’re understandably tired!

This hypothetical guy has 30 pounds to lose. Most of America has a lot more than that to lose. This kind of data is absolutely depressing to a person who has over 100 pounds to lose. Do the math. Five pounds a month. 20 months (almost two years) of full dedication, four days a week, four hours a week on the treadmill to meet that goal. Ugh. There’s got to be another way.

So don’t let anyone tell you it’s all just calories in and calories out. Don’t let anyone tell you that if you just get off your fat fanny and go to the health club you’re going to lose that weight with any kind of speed.

No wonder people quit their diet and exercise plan by the time the Super Bowl rolls around. We are a society of people who want results and we want them NOW.

Cheers!